Comments for Aurora Comms Blog

Comment on Aurora is turning green… by NW1er

NW1er — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 09:19:52 +0000

Good job when you read this: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8533937.stm, which reminds me very much of the presentation I went to by Sir David King, which we blogged about here: http://auroracommsblog.com/unintended-consequences/

Comment on How Confident Are You? by Garry Warburton

Garry Warburton — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:44:11 +0000

Let me ask you a question in return. How confident do you need to be?
Setting aside the issue of sample sizes, that statistical methods are meant, in any case, to correct for, let’s assume that a realistic power calculation has been made. Then, most of us are pretty OK with the p<0.05. Thus, when we read that (e.g.) a new non-opioid pain killer reduces headaches from 55% in the control group to 25% in the treated group, we do not even look to see what the p value is.
But what if the end-point is something more serious (death is quite serious), and the values are 5.5% in the control group and 2.5% in the treated group? The relative risk is the same but are we as willing to accept a confidence level of 95%, i.e. are we willing to be wrong 1 time out of 20 for a serious event that occurs in about 1 in 20 cases? Or would we feel more comfortable if we had p<0.01 or p<0.001? If your wager was for £1 million, what odds would you accept?
For our treating physicians, it’s even more complicated. They have to consider both benefit and risk. If the non-opioid pain killer above caused gastric bleeding (I can’t spell haemorrhage) in 40% of cases, how does the physicians assessment of the efficacy statistics look now?
This is the problem: on the whole individual physicians treat individual patients (OK, apologies to public/community/occupational health practitioners), and they have to consider benefit and risk, and this in the context of the overall health of the patient. How useful now is the value of p<0.05. Of course it has an indicative value, but statistical results have to be put in the context of the disease, the patient and the (expected) outcome, and our need for “confidence” depends on these factors also.
Both the scientific and communication communities should bear this in mind when preparing their reports.

Comment on Bacon on test by Garry Warburton

Garry Warburton — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:00:31 +0000

Dear Sir,
I wholeheartedly support your quest to bring sound methodology to the vexing question of where the best bacon +/- egg sarnie can be had. Nevertheless, I am somewhat disappointed by the small sample size in your report. I note from your data points that you did not stray far from the office in making this survey. Whilst I understand the methodological difficulties involved in travelling long distances while digesting the aforementioned sandwich, I must refer you to a recent study I made. In fact, my hypothesis was slightly different from yours. Whilst I accept that the search for the best sarnie must be the holy grail in such inquiries, I limited my study to address the question of whether bacon +/- egg sarnies from the north of England were superior to those from the south of the country, the null hypothesis being that southern sarnies were superior to northern sarnies. This study was conducted in centres in Weymouth, Southampton, Reading, Wimbledon and Luton (south, although I accept that Luton may be regarded as marginal), and in Manchester, Chorley, Blackpool, Kendal and Penrith (north). I refrain from mentioning specific centres for fear of accusations of scientific bias.
After analysis, northern sarnies were found to be significantly superior (p<0.01, one-sided t-test) to those from the south. In addition, although this was only a secondary end-point, they were significantly less poncey (Chi-square value of 15.81 with Bonferroni correction, and stratified for presence of egg or not) than those in your limited sample (baguettes indeed….).
I submit these results to you in the interests of education. Whilst, as stated earlier, they do not address the ultimate question of the best sarnie, the suggestion is that you will have to expand the geographic scope of your current database in order to answer this question.
Respectfully.

Comment on No shortcuts by Claire

Claire — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:15:46 +0000

I was so upset by this news Chiara. I checked and my favourites - Laksa and Chicken and Vegetable Broth - are both in the green zone. Phew!

Comment on No shortcuts by chiantichiara

chiantichiara — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:03:27 +0000

You’re exactly right Claire, unless you make the food yourself you can never be 100% sure of what’s in any type convenience food, despite what’s on the label. I was very upset to learn today that the ‘wholesome, 5% fat, lactose free, gluten free, nut free’ soups from Eat which I indulge in almost daily as part of my ‘healthy eating’ regime are actually loaded in salt. The Consensus Action on Salt and Health have done a comprehensive survey of high street soups http://www.actiononsalt.org.uk/ so it looks like no more Toulouse sausage and butter bean for me….sob!

Comment on Bacon on test by neilcrump

neilcrump — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 10:11:51 +0000

This picture is making me hungry, despite the fact I have just had my grande latte and a big bowl of porridge with maple syrup and banana. Wonder which is healthier: the porridge or the bacon sanga? Or more precisely: which option is worse for you?

Comment on How Confident Are You? by Neil Crump

Neil Crump — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:41:34 +0000

So my fellow Aurorian. Please tell us the significance of the magic 1 in 20 rule and chance. Take me back to a lecture theatre at the University of Bath circa 1990…

Comment on No shortcuts by Claire

Claire — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:21:55 +0000

Welcome to Britain Bily! We try to keep up with America when it comes to eating. You hit the nail on the head when you say ‘menu’. That’s the planning part - knowing what you are going to eat in advance and having it handy so you don’t slip. I’m not a snacker but I like to feel full so I’m eating lots of fruit and drinking water, and having proper meals that don’t leave me hungry.

Comment on No shortcuts by Bily

Bily — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:04:27 +0000

Hi Claire
I would probably add that is is also how you eat, and how often, Since I moved here, I am astonished by the food including cookies, crisps and sweets that you can find everywhere, at any time, and people actually buying and eating it at anytime of the day! Some people also tend to eat fast - they consume, fill themselves but do not always seem to care about quality/taste. To me, all fast foods taste the same. We need to be re-educated on good food,
So what was on your menu today?
Cheers
Bily

Comment on Social media with a conscience by Neil Crump

Neil Crump — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 10:40:25 +0000

It is really amazing how powerful social media has become when it comes to campaigning and fund raising. It meets all the criteria as a communication channel for this type of activity: interlinked, fast and able to spread exponentially as people get on board. Download the Help for Haiti Now album - I love it.